Psychological pressure in competitive environments: Evidence from a randomized natural experiment: Comment

Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta (forthcoming) report for a sample of 129 shootouts from various seasons in ten different competitions that teams kicking first in soccer penalty shootouts win significantly more often than teams kicking second. Collecting data for the entire history of six major soccer competitions we cannot replicate their result. Teams kicking first win only 53.4% of 262 shootouts in our data, which is not significantly different from random. Our findings have two implications: (1) Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta’s results are not generally robust. (2) Using specific subsamples without a coherent criterion for data selection might lead to non-representative findings

A comparison of two trusses for the space station structure

The structural performance of two truss configurations, the orthogonal tetrahedral and a Warren-type, are compared using finite element models representing the November Reference Phase 1 Space Station. The truss torsional stiffness properties and fundamental torsion frequency are determined using cantilever truss-beam models. Frequencies, mode shapes, transient response, and truss strut compressive loads are compared for the two space station models. The performance benefit resulting from using a high modulus truss strut is also presented. Finally, assembly and logistics characteristics of the two truss configurations are evaluated

Revealed Distributional Preferences: Individuals vs. Teams

We compare experimentally the revealed distributional preferences of individuals and teams in allocation tasks. We find that teams are significantly more benevolent than individuals in the domain of disadvantageous inequality while the benevolence in the domain of advantageous inequality is similar across decision makers. A consequence for the frequency of preference types is that while a substantial fraction of individuals is classified as inequality averse, this type disappears completely in teams. Spiteful types are markedly more frequent among individuals than among teams. On the other hand, by far more teams than individuals are classified as efficiency lovers

Psychological pressure in competitive environments: Evidence from a randomized natural experiment: Comment

Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta (forthcoming) report for a sample of 129 shootouts from various seasons in ten different competitions that teams kicking first in soccer penalty shootouts win significantly more often than teams kicking second. Collecting data for the entire history of six major soccer competitions we cannot replicate their result. Teams kicking first win only 53.4% of 262 shootouts in our data, which is not significantly different from random. Our findings have two implications: (1) Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta's results are not generally robust. (2) Using specific subsamples without a coherent criterion for data selection might lead to non-representative findings.Tournament, first-mover advantage, psychological pressure, field experiment, soccer, penalty shootouts

El auge de China y la continuidad de la hegemonía de EEUU en Asia

En este ARI el autor afirma que la fortaleza de China como potencia emergente en Asia se ha sobrevalorado, mientras que el poder y la influencia general de EEUU en la zona no ha declinado. Este análisis se plantea como respuesta a la gran variedad de valoraciones y opiniones de los medios, especialistas y expertos que describen un orden asiático emergente encabezado por una China en auge y que relegan a EEUU –que ha mantenido durante largo tiempo el liderazgo en la zona– a un papel cada vez más secundario. En él se demuestra que estas valoraciones y comentarios tienden a sobrevalorar tanto la fuerza de la potencia emergente, China, como la debilidad de EEUU. Este planteamiento es similar al adoptado en otras ocasiones de la historia reciente y que condujo a valoraciones muy erróneas del desafío al liderazgo norteamericano en Asia que representaron la Unión Soviética a finales de la década de los 70 y el auge de Japón durante la década de los 80

Psychological Pressure in Competitive Environments: Evidence from a Randomized Natural Experiment: Comment

Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta (forthcoming) report for a sample of 129 shootouts from various seasons in ten different competitions that teams kicking first in soccer penalty shootouts win significantly more often than teams kicking second. Collecting data for the entire history of six major soccer competitions we cannot replicate their result. Teams kicking first win only 53.4% of 262 shootouts in our data, which is not significantly different from random. Our findings have two implications: (1) Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta's results are not generally robust. (2) Using specific subsamples without a coherent criterion for data selection might lead to non-representative findings.tournament, first-mover advantage, psychological pressure, field experiment, soccer, penalty shootouts

Psychological pressure in competitive environments: Evidence from a randomized natural experiment: Comment

Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta (forthcoming) report for a sample of 129 shootouts from various seasons in ten different competitions that teams kicking first in soccer penalty shootouts win significantly more often than teams kicking second. Collecting data for the entire history of six major soccer competitions we cannot replicate their result. Teams kicking first win only 53.4% of 262 shootouts in our data, which is not significantly different from random. Our findings have two implications: (1) Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta?s results are not generally robust. (2) Using specific subsamples without a coherent criterion for data selection might lead to non-representative findings.Tournament, first-mover advantage, psychological pressure, field experiment, soccer, penalty shootouts

Psychological pressure in competitive environments: Evidence from a randomized natural experiment: Comment

Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta (forthcoming) report for a sample of 129 shootouts from various seasons in ten different competitions that teams kicking first in soccer penalty shootouts win significantly more often than teams kicking second. Collecting data for the entire history of six major soccer competitions we cannot replicate their result. Teams kicking first win only 53.4% of 262 shootouts in our data, which is not significantly different from random. Our findings have two implications: (1) Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta’s results are not generally robust. (2) Using specific subsamples without a coherent criterion for data selection might lead to non-representative findings.Tournament; first-mover advantage; psychological pressure; field experiment; soccer; penalty shootouts

Impatience and Uncertainty: Experimental Decisions Predict Adolecents' Field Behavior

We study risk attitudes, ambiguity attitudes, and time preferences of 661 children and adolescents, aged ten to eighteen years, in an incentivized experiment. We relate experimental choices to field behavior. Experimental measures of impatience are found to be significant predictors of health related field behavior and saving decisions. In particular, more impatient children and adolescents are more likely to spend money on alcohol and cigarettes, have a higher body mass index (BMI) and are less likely to save money. Experimental measures for risk and ambiguity attitudes are only weak predictors of field behavior

A variational approach to moment-closure approximations for the kinetics of biomolecular reaction networks

Approximate solutions of the chemical master equation and the chemical Fokker-Planck equation are an important tool in the analysis of biomolecular reaction networks. Previous studies have highlighted a number of problems with the moment-closure approach used to obtain such approximations, calling it an ad-hoc method. In this article, we give a new variational derivation of moment-closure equations which provides us with an intuitive understanding of their properties and failure modes and allows us to correct some of these problems. We use mixtures of product-Poisson distributions to obtain a flexible parametric family which solves the commonly observed problem of divergences at low system sizes. We also extend the recently introduced entropic matching approach to arbitrary ansatz distributions and Markov processes, demonstrating that it is a special case of variational moment closure. This provides us with a particularly principled approximation method. Finally, we extend the above approaches to cover the approximation of multi-time joint distributions, resulting in a viable alternative to process-level approximations which are often intractable.Comment: Minor changes and clarifications; corrected some typo